Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
