Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
